DETEKSI DINI POTENSI KEBANGKRUTAN BANK DENGAN MODEL GROVER
EARLY DETECTION OF POTENTIAL BANKRUPTION IN BANKS WITH THE GROVER MODEL
Kebangkrutan adalah suatu kondisi disaat perusahaan mengalami ketidakcukupan dana untuk menjalankan usahanya. Prediksi potensi kebangkrutan sangat penting karena perlunya indikasi awal dari bank dengan menggunakan faktor internal maupun faktor eksternal. Salah satunya menggunakan laporan keuangan untuk meminimalisir risiko kegagalan bank. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio-rasio keuangan Return On Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Performing Loan (NPL), BOPO, Firm size, Market Effect terhadap potensi kebangkrutan bank dengan model grover. Jumlah populasi yang digunakan adalah 45 bank dan sampel yang diambil dalam penelitian ini adalah 37 bank yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2015-2018 dengan metode purposive sampling. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kausalitas dengan metode pengumpulan data dengan cara dokumentasi, yaitu dengan mengambil data dari laporan tahunan perusahaan. Metode analisis data menggunakan analisis statistik deskriptif dan analisis regresi logistik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rasio Return On Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Firm size, Market Effect memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap potensi kebangkrutan bank. Sedangkan rasio Net Performing Loan (NPL), Beban Operasional terhadap Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO) memiliki hubungan negative dan tidak signifikan terhadap potensi kebangkrutan bank. hal ini dikarenakan rata-rata variabel nilainya diatas kriteria bank Indonesia, dan bank yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia dapat mempertahankan dengan baik. hal ini menandakan bahwa model grover akurat dalam mengukur kesehatan bank.
Bankruptcy is a condition when a company experiences insufficient funds to run its business. Prediction of potential bankruptcy is very important because of the need for early indications from banks using internal factors as well as external factors. One of them uses financial statements to minimize the risk of bank failure. This study aims to analyze the effect of Return on Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Performing Loan (NPL), (BOPO), Firm size, Market Effect on the potential bankruptcy of the bank using the model Grover. The total population used was 45 banks and the sample taken in this study were 37 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2015-2018 period with a purposive sampling method. This research is causality research with the method of data collection using documentation, namely by taking data from the company's annual report. The data analysis method uses descriptive statistical analysis and logistic regression analysis. The results showed that the Return on Assets (ROA) ratio, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Firm size, Market Effect have a positive and not significant relationship to bankruptcy potential. Whereas the Net Performing Loan (NPL) ratio, Operational Expense to Operating Income (BOPO) has a negative and insignificant relationship to the bank's potential bankruptcy. This is because the average variable value is above the criteria of Indonesian banks, and banks listed on the Indonesian stock exchange can maintain well. This indicates that the Grover model is accurate in measuring the health of banks.