Environmental Kuznet Curve: Analisis Sustainable Development di Indonesia Melalui Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Environmental Kuznet Curve: Analysis Sustainable Development in Indonesia Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia bersifat trade-off yakni peningkatan pendapatan yang harus dibayar dengan kerusakan lingkungan. Munculnya gagasan sustainable development sebagai upaya pembangunan bersifat jangka panjang dari aspek ekonomi, sosial, dan lingkungan akibat dari timbulnya permasalahan yang dihadapi negara di dunia. Teori Environmental Kuznet Curve menghubungkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan degradasi menyatakan peningkatan pendapatan akan meningkatkan kerusakan lingkungan tetapi setelah mencapai titik belok, peningkatan pendapatan akan menurunkan kerusakan lingkungan.

Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis sustainable development di Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan teori Environmental Kuznet Curve melalui model VECM. Data penelitian ini sebanyak 31 dengan variabel CO2 sebagai variabel terikat, sedangkan GDP dan IPM sebagai variabel bebas. Analisis metode VECM digunakan untuk menganalisis sustainable development di Indonesia pada jangka pendek dan jangka panjang.

Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa pada jangka pendek sustainable development di Indoensia bersifat weak dan menolak EKC. Hal ini disebabkan emisi gas karbon merupakan trend peningkatan yang memerlukan waktu dalam jangka panjang. Sedangkan pada jangka panjang, sustainable development bersifat strong dan menerima EKC. Disebabkan teori EKC sesuai dengan karakteristik negara berkembang seperti Indonesia dan terdapat peningkatan energi alternatif sebagai susbstitusi BBM penyebab meningkatnya gas karbon.

Kata Kunci : Sustainable Development, EKC, CO2, GDP, IPM.

Economic development in Indonesia is a trade-off, that is, increased income must be paid for by environmental damage. The emergence of the idea of ​​sustainable development as a long-term development effort from economic, social and environmental aspects as a result of the emergence of problems faced by countries in the world. The theory of the Environmental Kuznets Curve linking economic growth with degradation states that an increase in income will increase environmental damage but after reaching an inflection point, an increase in income will reduce environmental damage.

The purpose of this study is to analyze sustainable development in Indonesia using the Environmental Kuznet Curve theoretical approach through the VECM model. There are 31 data in this study with CO2 as the dependent variable, while GDP and HDI as independent variables. The VECM analysis method is used to analyze sustainable development in Indonesia in the short and long term.

The research results prove that in the short term sustainable development in Indonesia is weak and rejects EKC. This is because carbon emissions are an increasing trend that takes time in the long term. Meanwhile, in the long term, sustainable development is strong and accepts EKC. This is because the EKC theory is in accordance with the characteristics of developing countries such as Indonesia and there is an increase in alternative energy as a substitute for fuel, which causes an increase in carbon gas.

Keyword Key: Sustainable development, EKC, CO2, GDP, IPM