HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO, INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DAN KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA PADA MASA SEBELUM DAN SAAT PANDEMI COVID-19
CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX, AND POVERTY IN INDONESIA BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antar variabel dan mengetahui perbedaan ditiap variabel dengan waktu yang berbeda pada sebelum pandemi Covid-19 di tahun 2018-2019 dan saat pandemi Covid-19 pada tahun 2020-2021, variabel yang digunakan pada penelitian ini antara lain Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif.. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR), Kausalitas Granger, dan uji beda metode Wilcoxon Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat kausalitas antara IPM dan Kemiskinan, terdapat kausalitas antara IPM dan PDRB, serta terdapat kausalitas antara Kemiskinan dan PDRB, tidak terdapat perbedaan antara IPM sebelum dan saat pandemi, tidak terdapat perbedaan antara kemiskinan sebelum dan saat pandemi, terdapat perbedaan antara PDRB sebelum dan saat pandemi
Kata Kunci : Produk Domestik Regional Bruto, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Kemiskinan, kausalitas granger, dan Covid-19
This research aims to determine the causal relationships among variables and to identify differences in each variable during different times, before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2018-2019 and during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. The variables used in this study include Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), the Human Development Index (HDI), and poverty in Indonesia. This research uses a quantitative approach. The research methods used are Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR), Granger causality, and the Wilcoxon test for difference. The results of this study show that there is no causal relationship between HDI and poverty, there is a causal relationship between HDI and GRDP, and there is a causal relationship between poverty and GRDP. There is no difference in HDI before and during the pandemic, no difference in poverty before and during the pandemic, and there is a difference in GRDP before and during the pandemic..
Keywords: Gross Regional Domestic Product, Human Development Index, poverty, Granger causality, and Covid-19.