PENGARUH KEMANDIRIAN FISKAL, DANA TRANSFER DAN BELANJA DAERAH TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2020-2024 

THE EFFECT OF FISCAL INDEPENDENCE RATIO, TRANSFER FUNDS AND REGIONAL EXPENDITURE ON POVERTY IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE 2020-2024

Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah mencapai angka tertinggi kedua setelah Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengkaji pengaruh rasio kemandirian fiskal, dana transfer dan belanja daerah terhadap kemiskinan provinsi jawa Tengah periode 2020-2024. Data yang dipakai dalam penelitian ini yaitu data sekunder, metode analisis yan digunakan Adalah regresi data panel, dan model yang dipakai adalah fixed effect model. Pengujian ekonometrika melakukan pengujian asumsi klasik, dengan memakai uji t, uji F dan koefisien determinasi (R2) untuk menguji hipotesis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel independen berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap kemiskinan. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa rasio kemandirian fiskal daerah memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, Dana Transfer berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, dan Belanja Daerah berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap kemiskinan

Keywords: Kemandirian Fiskal, Dana Transfer, Belanja Daerah, Kemiskinan

Poverty in Central Java Province hasreached thesecond-highest level after the Special Region of Yogyakarta. This study aims to examine the effect of the fiscal independence ratio, transfer funds, and regional expenditure on poverty in Central Java Province forthe 2020-2024 period. The data used in this study are secondary, the analytical method used is panel data regression, and the model used is a fixed effect model. Econometric testing tests classical assumptions, using the t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination (R2) to test the hypothesis. The results also show that the regional fiscal independence ratio and regionalspending have a significant positive effect on poverty, but Transfer Funds have a significant negative effect on poverty. This study shows that fiscal independence, transfer funds, and regional spending significantly impacted poverty in Central Java during the 2020–2024 period, but the direction of this influence is not aligned with the goal of poverty alleviation. Fiscal independence and regional spending actually increase poverty, while regional spending, which should reduce poverty, have the opposite effect.

Keywords: Fiscal Independence, Transfer Funds, Regional Expenditure