ANALISIS PREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS MENGGUNAKAN ARUS KAS OPERASI DAN CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PADA PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR INFRASTRUKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2019-2023

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION USING OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE FROM 2019-2023

Persaingan perusahaan menuntut manajemen perusahaan untuk mengelola keuangan dan tata kelola perusahaan agar terhindar dari risiko kebangkrutan. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pengaruh dari arus kas operasi terhadap utang jangka pendek, arus kas operasi terhadap laba bersih, komisaris independen, ukuran dewan direksi, ukuran komite audit, kepemilikan institusional, dan kepemilikan manajerial terhadap kemungkinan terjadinya financial distress pada sektor infrastruktur tahun 2019-2023. Populasi dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 67 perusahaan sektor infrastruktur yang terdaftar di BEI. Sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 33 perusahaan, dengan teknik pengambilan purposive sampling. Data diolah menggunakan Stata 17 dengan teknik analisis regresi logistik. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kepemilikan institusional dan kepemilikan manajerial berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan financial distress. Arus kas operasi terhadap utang jangka pendek, arus kas operasi terhadap laba bersih, komisaris independen, ukuran dewan direksi, dan ukuran komite audit tidak berpengaruh terhadap kemungkinan financial distress. Karena infrastruktur seringkali menggunakan utang jangka panjang, serta pengakuan pendapatan agresif sehingga CFFOCL dan CFFONI tidak dapat memprediksi financial distress. Sementara itu efisiensi komisaris independen, dewan direksi, dan komite audit lebih penting daripada proporsi dan jumlah. Oleh karena itu, perusahaan sektor infrastruktur diharapkan kedepannya dapat mempertimbangkan kepemilikan institusional dan kepemilikan manajerial yang berpengaruh terhadap kemungkinan financial distress. Hal ini dikarenakan karena adanya monitoring perusahaan dari institusi dan manajerial sehingga perusahaan dapat mengambil keputusan yang tepat dan terhindar dari risiko financial distress. 

Kata kunci: risiko kebangkrutan, financial distress, arus kas operasi terhadap liabilitas jangka pendek, arus kas operasi terhadap laba bersih, komisaris independen, ukuran dewan direksi, ukuran komite audit, kepemilikan institusional, kepemilikan manajerial

Competition among companies forces company management to manage finances and corporate governance well in order to avoid the risk of bankruptcy. This study aims to determine the impact of operating cash flow on short-term debt, operating cash flow on net income, proportion of independent commissioners, the size of the board of directors, the size of the audit committee, institutional ownership, and management ownership on the likelihood of financial difficulties in the infrastructure sector during the period from 2019 to 2023. The population in this study includes 67 infrastructure sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The sample used consists of 33 companies, with a purposive sampling method. The data obtained were analyzed using Stata 17 software with logistic regression analysis. The results of the study indicate that institutional ownership and management ownership have a negative effect on the likelihood of financial difficulties. Meanwhile, operating cash flow to current liabilities, operating cash flow to net income, independent commissioners, the size of the board of directors, and the size of the audit committee do not affect the likelihood of financial difficulties. Because infrastructure often uses long-term debt and aggressive revenue recognition, CFFOCL and CFFONI cannot predict financial distress. Meanwhile, the efficiency of independent commissioners, boards of directors, and audit committees is more important than proportion and size. Therefore, infrastructure sector companies are advised to pay attention to institutional ownership and management ownership, as both factors influence the likelihood of financial distress. This is due to the monitoring capabilities of institutions and management over the company, enabling them to make appropriate decisions and reduce the risk of financial distress. 

Keywords: bankruptcy risk, financial difficulties, operating cash flow to short-term debt, operating cash flow to net income, independent commisioner, board of directors size, audit committee size, institutional ownership, management ownership.