DETERMINAN DOMESTIK DAN GLOBAL NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH INDONESIA TERHADAP DOLLAR AS
DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL DETERMINANTS OF THE INDONESIAN RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST THE US DOLLAR
ABSTRACT
Author : Muflihatul Adawiyah
Title : Domestic And Global Determinants Of The Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate Against The US Dollar
Type Of Final Project : Undergraduate thesis
City : Surabaya
Faculty : Economics and Business
Year : 2026
This study aims to analyze the impact of the money supply, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, VIXCLS, Indonesia's Geopolitical Risk (GPR-C), external debt, the BI Rate, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices on the IDR/USD exchange rate. The study employs a quantitative approach using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, utilizing secondary monthly data for Indonesia covering the period from January 2015 to December 2024, obtained from official publications. The results indicate that the money supply and VIXCLS have a significant positive effect, whereas external debt and WTI oil prices have a significant negative effect on the IDR/USD exchange rate. Conversely, CPI inflation, GPR-C, and the BI Rate do not have a significant impact. The study concludes that the rupiah exchange rate is primarily influenced by domestic monetary factors and global conditions. Future research is advised to incorporate additional variables and extend the observation period.
Keywords : IDR/USD Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Foreign Debt, Indonesian GPR-C, WTI, and VIX