Analisis Teori Realisme Dan Teori Kepatuhan Hukum Internasional Terhadap Putusan Arbitrase Khusus Berdasarkan  Annex Vii Unclos 1982 Terkait Penyelesaian Sengketa Di Laut China Selatan

An Analysis of Realism Theory and International Legal Compliance Theory Regarding the Special Arbitral Award under Annex VII of the 1982 UNCLOS Concerning the South China Sea Dispute

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis sikap non-kepatuhan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok terhadap Putusan Pengadilan Arbitrasi Permanen (PCA) tahun 2016 yang lahir melalui mekanisme arbitrase khusus Annex VIIUNCLOS 1982 dalam konteks konflik Laut China Selatan. Analisis dilakukan dengan menerapkan dua pendekatan teoretis utama, yaitu Realisme serta Teori Compliance Hukum Internasional. Penelitian ini merumuskan dua masalah fundamental: pertama, bagaimana perilaku non-kepatuhan Tiongkok diinterpretasikan melalui kedua teori tersebut; kedua, bagaimana dampak hukum from Putusan PCA 2016 terhadap keabsahan klaim maritim Tiongkok, penguatan kedaulatan Filipina, serta efektivitas mekanisme resolusi sengketa hukum laut internasional. Metode yang diterapkan adalah penelitian hukum normatif dengan pendekatan legislatif, konseptual, dan kasus. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan dua simpulan utama. Pertama, non-kepatuhan Tiongkok merupakan ketidakpatuhan yang disengaja (deliberate non-compliance) bersifat rasional dan terstruktur berdasarkan perhitungan keuntungan strategis, di mana konsekuensi kepatuhan terhadap PCA 2016 dianggap jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan sanksi moral akibat non-kepatuhan. Teori Realisme memberikan kapasitas pemahaman paling optimal terhadap perilaku ini, sementara Teori Kepatuhan berbasis kepentingan mengonfirmasi bahwa Tiongkok secara sadar memilih non-kepatuhan karena manfaat strategis yang diperoleh lebih dominan. Kedua, Putusan PCA 2016 secara yuridis membatalkan legitimasi nine-dash line, memperkuat hak kedaulatannasional Filipina melalui landasan hukum yang solid, namun sekaligus menunjukkan kelemahan struktural dalam mekanisme penyelesaian sengketa UNCLOS akibat tidak adanya instrumen penegakan, ketimpangan kekuatan yang sangat signifikan, serta fragmentasi respons komunitas internasional.

This research examines the People's Republic of China's non-compliance with the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Award, which was rendered through the special arbitration mechanism under Annex VII of UNCLOS 1982 in the South China Sea dispute, employing two primary theoretical frameworks: Realism Theory and International Law Compliance Theory. This research formulates two primary problem statements: first, how China's non-compliance is analyzed through Realism Theory and International Law Compliance Theory; and second, what legal implications the 2016 PCA Award holds for the validity of China's maritime claims, the strengthening of the Philippines' sovereign rights, and the effectiveness of dispute resolution mechanisms in international maritime law. This research applies normative legal research methodology with legislative, conceptual, and case approaches. The research findings reveal two principal conclusions. First, China's non-compliance constitutes deliberate non-compliance that is rational and strategically planned based on calculations of strategic interests, wherein the costs of complying with the 2016 PCA Award are perceived to far exceed the reputational costs of non-compliance. Realism Theory proves to possess the highest explanatory capacity in understanding this behavior, while interest-based Compliance Theory confirms that China consciously chooses non-compliance because the strategic benefits outweigh the costs. Second, the 2016 PCA Award normatively invalidates the legitimacy of the nine-dash line, strengthens the Philippines' sovereign rights through robust legal legitimacy, yet exposes the structural enforcement gap within the UNCLOS dispute resolution mechanism due to the absence of enforcement instruments, extreme power asymmetry, and fragmentation of international community responses.